Top StoryThe Snow Forecast Isn't a Forecast Anymore — It's a Probability Distribution
Behind every nor'easter headline is a model ensemble, a precip-type algorithm, and a forecaster deciding whether 34°F means rain, snow, or a ruined commute. Here's what actually happens between the supercomputer and your phone.
Seacrest's Name Is on the Stadium. DeKalb's Taxpayers Are on the Hook.
Ryan Seacrest gave his old high school a football field. The school board just voted to spend $2.7 million renovating the stadium that carries his name — and the money trail explains why celebrity charity is rarely the whole story.
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A Super El Niño Is a Money Transfer, Not a Weather Story
The forecast everyone is sharing is really a set of invoices: who pays for a warm Pacific, who gets paid, and who quietly eats the cost.
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Caleb Wilson: What the numbers actually show
Pull the base rates and the denominators. Most trending claims fall apart once you divide by the right thing. A different read on caleb wilson.
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Buffalo vs. Ball State Is a Rerun — and the Last Three Episodes Ended Badly for Someone
A Wednesday night MAC game between Buffalo and Ball State looks like filler. The last three times this matchup landed in a weird slot, the favorite got humbled. Here's the pattern worth betting against.
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The Capitals' OT Win Changes Nothing About Your Life — Unless You Bet on It
A rookie's overtime goal in November is fun, not fate. Here are the two decisions a Capitals-Senators result should actually affect, and the one it shouldn't.
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Vanguard's $200 Million Problem Is a Rounding Error — Until You Check the Denominator
The Altruist deal's borrowing costs look alarming against Vanguard's reputation. Against its actual balance sheet, the math tells a different story — and a more interesting one.
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The United Cockpit Scare Wasn't an Intelligence Failure. It Was a Paperwork One.
The man accused of storming a United cockpit and threatening a bomb had been deported twice. The reason he was on the plane anyway is a chain of small bureaucratic decisions no agency owns.
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The Taylor Fritz Numbers Don't Say What You Think They Say
Prediction markets, set-by-set prices, and the denominator problem: why single-match tennis odds get read as forecasts when they aren't.
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The Market Priced In the Inflation Report. It Didn't Price In What Comes Next.
The October CPI report is in, and stocks opened like the coast is clear. The problem is what a hot-but-not-catastrophic inflation print does to the Fed's next two meetings — and to everything priced off them.
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